How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market

Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said:

“They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.”

But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller?

Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters

The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact.

When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening.

As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out:

“Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.”

And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.”

The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates

Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below):

So, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers:

1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect

For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house.

If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate.

2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity

For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move.

What Should You Do?

While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening.

And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well:

“Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.”

Bottom Line

The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, though gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, let’s connect. That way you’ll be prepared to take action when the time is right for you.

The Great Wealth Transfer: A New Era of Opportunity

In recent years, there’s been a significant shift in how wealth is distributed among generations. It’s called the Great Wealth Transfer.

Historically, the transfer of wealth from one generation to the next was a more gradual process, often limited to smaller amounts of inheritance or family savings. But today, the scale has increased in a big way. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“The biggest wave of wealth in history is about to pass from Baby Boomers over the next 20 years, and it’s going to have major impacts on many facets of life. Called The Great Wealth Transfer, $84 trillion is poised to move from older Americans to Gen X and millennials. If it’s managed smartly, Americans will be able to grow their wealth and ensure their financial security.”

Basically, as more Baby Boomers retire, sell businesses, or downsize their homes, more substantial assets are being passed down to younger generations. And this creates a powerful ripple effect that’ll continue over the next few decades. The graph below uses data from Merrill and Cerulli Associates to give you an idea of how much inherited money is set to change hands through 2045:

Impact on the Housing Market

One of the most immediate effects of this wealth transfer is on the housing market. Home affordability has been a concern for many aspiring buyers, especially in high-demand areas. The increase in generational wealth is expected to ease some of these challenges by providing future homeowners with greater financial resources. As assets are passed down through generations, buyers may find themselves in a better position to afford homes. Merrill talks about that benefit in a recent article:

“While millennials face steep barriers . . . to buying a first home in many markets, ‘that’s a for-now story, not a forever story’ . . . The Great Wealth Transfer should enable more of them to become homeowners — or trade up or add a second home — either through inherited property or the funds for a down payment.”

Impact on the Economy

But the Great Wealth Transfer doesn’t just impact housing. It’s also going to provide a new avenue for entrepreneurial spirits to fuel economic growth. If someone is looking to start a business and they’re receiving funds like this, that money can used as the necessary capital to start a new company. This helps the next generation of innovators and business owners bring their ideas to life.

Bottom Line

While affordability remains a challenge in today’s housing market, the ongoing Great Wealth Transfer is poised to unlock new opportunities. As wealth is passed down and put to use, it’s expected to ease some of the barriers to homeownership and fuel other entrepreneurial endeavors. 

Have you heard the good news? Mortgage rates are down a full percent from their recent peak. And if higher rates were the biggest thing keeping you on the sidelines, this may be exactly what you were waiting for. If you’re ready to jump back into the market, DM me.

The Biggest Mistakes Sellers Are Making Right Now

The housing market is going through a transition. Higher mortgage rates are causing more moderate buyer activity at the same time the supply of homes for sale is growing.

And if you aren’t working with an agent, you may not realize that. Here’s the downside. If you’re not informed, you can’t adjust your strategy or expectations to today’s market. And that can lead to a number of costly mistakes.

Here’s a look at some of the most common ones – and how an agent will help you avoid them when you sell. 

1. Overpricing Your House

Many sellers set their asking price too high and that’s why there’s an uptick in homes with price reductions today. An unrealistic price will deter potential buyers, cause an appraisal issue, or lead to your house sitting on the market longer. An article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever just because they can, but this may drive away serious buyers and result in unapproved appraisals . . .”

To avoid falling into this trap, partner with a pro. An agent uses recent sales of similar homes, the condition of your house, local market trends, and so much more to find the price that’ll attract more buyers and open the door for multiple offers and a faster sale.

2. Skipping the Small Stuff

You may try to skip important repairs, thinking you can pass the task on to your buyer. But visible issues (even if they’re small) can turn off potential buyers and result in lower offers or demands for concessions. As Money Talks News says:

“Home shoppers like to turn on lights, flush toilets and run the water. If these basic things don’t work, they may assume you’ve skipped other maintenance. Homes that appear neglected aren’t likely to fetch top price.”

If you want to get your house ready to sell, the best place to turn to for advice is your agent. They’ll be able to do a walk-through with you and point out anything you’ll need to tackle before the photographer comes in.

3. Not Looking at Things Objectively

Buyers today are feeling the pinch of high home prices and mortgage rates. With affordability that tight, they may come in with an offer that’s lower than you’d want to see – especially if you didn’t stage, price, or market the house well.

It’s important you don’t take this personally. Getting overly emotional can put the sale at risk. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says:

“Remember, a buyer’s offer is not a reflection of their opinion of your home or your housekeeping abilities. . . The sale of your home is strictly a business transaction. If they start out with a low offer, don’t take it personally and get emotional. Instead, channel that energy toward negotiating. Work with your agent and make a counteroffer.”

4. Being Unwilling To Negotiate

The supply of homes for sale has grown. That means buyers have more options, and with that comes more negotiation power. As a seller, you may see more buyers getting an inspection, requesting repairs, or asking for help with closing costs today. You need to be prepared to have those conversations. As U.S. News Real Estate explains:

“If you've received an offer for your house that isn't quite what you'd hoped it would be, expect to negotiate . . . the only way to come to a successful deal is to make sure the buyer also feels like he or she benefits . . . consider offering to cover some of the buyer's closing costs or agree to a credit for a minor repair the inspector found.”

An agent will walk you through what levers you may want to pull based on your own goals, budget, and timeframe.

5. Not Using a Real Estate Agent

Notice anything? For each of these mistakes, partnering with an agent helps prevent them from happening in the first place. That makes trying to sell your house without an agent’s help the biggest mistake of all.

Real estate agents have experience and expertise in pricing, marketing, negotiating, and more. That knowledge streamlines the selling process and usually results in drumming up more interest and ultimately can get you a higher final price.

Bottom Line

If you want to avoid making mistakes like these, let’s connect to make sure you’re set up for success.

Why Your Asking Price Matters Even More Right Now

If you’re thinking about selling your house, here’s something you really need to know. Even though it’s still a seller’s market today, you can’t pick just any price for your listing.

While home prices are still appreciating in most areas, they’re climbing at a slower pace because higher mortgage rates are putting a squeeze on buyer demand. At the same time, the supply of homes for sale is growing. That means buyers have more options and your house may not stand out as much, if it’s not priced right.

Those two factors combined are why the asking price you set for your house is more important today than it has been in recent years.

And some sellers are finding that out the hard way. That’s leading to more price reductions. Mike Simonsen, Founder and President of ALTOS Research, explains:

“Looking at the price reductions data set . . . It all fits in the same pattern of increasing supply and homebuyer demand that is just exhausted by high mortgage rates. . . As home sellers are faced with less demand than they expected, more of them have to reduce their prices.”

That’s because they haven’t adjusted their expectations to today’s market. Maybe they’re not working with an agent, so they don’t know what’s happening around them. Or they’re not using an agent who prioritizes being a local market expert. Either way, they aren’t basing their pricing decision on the latest data available – and that’s a miss.

If you want to avoid making a pricing mistake that could turn away buyers and delay your sale, you need to work with an agent who really knows your local market. If you lean on the right agent, they’ll help you avoid making mistakes like:

• Setting a Price That’s Too High: Some sellers have unrealistic expectations about how much their house is worth. That’s because they base their price on their gut or their bottom line, not the data. An agent will help you base your price on facts, not opinion, so you have a better chance of hitting the mark.
• Not Considering What Houses Are Actually Selling for: Without an agent’s help, some sellers may use the wrong comparable sales (comps) in their area and misjudge the market value of their home. An agent has the expertise needed to find true comps. And they’ll use those to give you valuable insights into how to price your house in a way that’s competitive for you and your future buyer.
• Overestimating Home Improvements: Sellers who have invested a significant amount of money in home improvements may overestimate how much those upgrades affect their home's value. While certain improvements can increase a home's appeal, not all upgrades are going to get a great return on their investment. An agent factors in what you’ve done and what buyers in your area actually want as they set the price.
• Ignoring Feedback and Market Response: Some sellers may be resistant to lowering their asking price based on feedback they’re getting in open houses. An agent will remind the seller how important it is to be flexible and respond to market feedback in order to attract qualified buyers.

In the end, accurate pricing depends on current market conditions – and only an agent has all the data and information necessary to find the right price for your house. The right agent will use that expertise to develop a pricing strategy that’s based on current market conditions and designed to get your house sold. That way you don’t miss the mark.

Bottom Line

The right asking price is even more important today than it’s been over the last few years. To avoid making a costly mistake, let’s work together.

Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

The 2024 Presidential election is just months away. As someone who’s thinking about potentially buying or selling a home, you’re probably curious about what effect, if any, elections have on the housing market.

It’s a great question because buying or selling a home is a major decision, and it’s natural to wonder how such a major event might impact your plans.

Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. Here’s the latest on exactly what’s happened to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates throughout those time periods.

Home Sales

During the month of November, in years when the Presidential election takes place, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, explains:

“Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”

This is mostly because some people feel uncertain and hesitant about making big decisions during such a pivotal time. However, it’s important to know this slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue to rise the following year.

In fact, data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows after nine of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year (see graph below): 

The graph shows annual home sales going back to 1978. Each year with a Presidential election is noted in blue. The year immediately after each election is green if existing home sales rose that year. The two orange bars represent the only years when home sales decreased after an election.

Home Prices

What about home prices? Do they drop during election years? Not typically. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist puts it:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

Home prices are pretty resilient. They generally rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. The latest data from NAR shows after seven of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year (see graph below): 

Just like the previous graph, this shows election years in blue. The only year when prices declined after an election is in orange. That was during the housing market crash, which was far from a typical year. Today’s market is different than it was back then.

All the green bars represent when prices rose the following year. So, if you're worried about your home losing value because of an election, you can rest easy knowing prices rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are important because they affect how much your monthly payment will be when you buy a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, data from Freddie Mac shows mortgage rates decreased from July to November in eight of them (see chart below): 

Most forecasts expect mortgage rates to ease slightly throughout the remainder of the year. If they’re right, this year will follow the trend of declining rates leading up to most previous elections. And if you’re looking to buy a home in the coming months, this could be good news, as lower rates could mean a lower monthly payment.

What This Means for You

So, what’s the big takeaway? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are usually small and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t have a major impact on their plans.

Bottom Line

While it’s natural to feel a bit uncertain during an election year, history shows the housing market remains strong and resilient. For help navigating the market, election year or not, let’s connect.

Thinking of selling but feeling stuck with today’s mortgage rates? Here’s something to consider: your home equity could be the solution. So, how can equity help? Depending on how much you have you could: - Buy your next home in cash. - Make a larger down payment and finance less.